Texas Republican Senate Primary Race Just Took a Predictable Turn

The Texas Republican Senate primary race is headed to a runoff after none of the three candidates won 50 percent of the vote.

After 57.4 percent of expected votes were tallied, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) received 43.1 percent of the vote. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton narrowly trailed Cornyn at 40.4 percent. Rep. Wesley Hunt came in third with 12.9 percent.

The primary was a three-way brawl between Cornyn, Paxton, and Wesley Hunt. Polling leading up to the race suggested that no candidate would clear the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff.

Days before the election, multiple surveys showed Paxton with a slight, but consistent lead over Cornyn. Wesley trailed his two opponents, but still showed double-digit support.

A Decision Desk HQ polling average published in late February put Paxton at 39 percent, Cornyn at 35 percent, and Hunt at 17 percent. The rest were undecided. 

The last Emerson College/Nexstar survey, conducted February 26-27, also framed the contest as a Paxton-Cornyn showdown, describing Paxton’s lead as “narrow” and noting that a large chunk of voters said they could still change their minds.

Cornyn, a four-term senator, began the election cycle as a vulnerable establishment candidate in a party that has gravitated toward the populist MAGA wing. His criticism of President Donald Trump after the 2020 election and his misgivings about his chances of winning in 2024 alienated a portion of the base. He later worked to mend his relationship with the president.

Paxton’s entry into the race raised eyebrows. The MAGA-aligned attorney general endeared himself to the base by being a leading voice against the Biden administration.

However, several scandals and legal troubles plagued his campaign, which prompted many on the right to suggest that if he secured the nomination, Democrats would have a much better chance of winning the Senate seat.

Hunt’s entry into the race further shook things up. He argued that Cornyn and Paxton were too risky and that the party needed a fresh face who could unite Republicans while winning over swing voters. He split the anti-Paxton crowd, prompting Republican leaders to worry that internal divisions could also hand Democrats a victory.

Cornyn and his allies portrayed Paxton as a risky choice, with years of investigations, indictments, and a messy extramarital affair. Paxton countered by pointing out that he is an outsider who has won three elections.

“If the Democrats win, because we nominate a flawed candidate with incredible baggage like the attorney general, then that last two years of [Trump’s] agenda is jeopardized, as well as everybody down ballot that we need to continue to elect as Republicans,” Cornyn said during an appearance on Fox News.

Paxton responded in his own appearance on Fox News. “It’s really easy for him to say that when he’s losing a primary, because he’s not delivered for the people of Texas, and he’s going to find out tomorrow what that means,” he said. “He’s going to end up losing.”

Another controversy arose when one of Cornyn’s staffers posted images of Hunt’s 2016 provisional ballot on X, including his home address and other sensitive information. Hunt and Paxton blasted the senator’s campaign, accusing it of doxxing the candidate.

Cornyn’s campaign responded by pointing out that the information was already accessible to the public. However, the aide deleted the post hours later and posted another with Hunt’s personal information blacked out.

The runoff election will take place on Tuesday, May 26.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

Help Townhall continue to report on the Democrats’ radicalism and inform voters as our nation faces a crossroads. Join Townhall VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.

The Texas Republican Senate primary race is headed to a runoff after none of the three candidates won 50 percent of the vote.

After 57.4 percent of expected votes were tallied, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) received 43.1 percent of the vote. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton narrowly trailed Cornyn at 40.4 percent. Rep. Wesley Hunt came in third with 12.9 percent.

The primary was a three-way brawl between Cornyn, Paxton, and Wesley Hunt. Polling leading up to the race suggested that no candidate would clear the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff.

Days before the election, multiple surveys showed Paxton with a slight, but consistent lead over Cornyn. Wesley trailed his two opponents, but still showed double-digit support.

A Decision Desk HQ polling average published in late February put Paxton at 39 percent, Cornyn at 35 percent, and Hunt at 17 percent. The rest were undecided. 

The last Emerson College/Nexstar survey, conducted February 26-27, also framed the contest as a Paxton-Cornyn showdown, describing Paxton’s lead as “narrow” and noting that a large chunk of voters said they could still change their minds.

Cornyn, a four-term senator, began the election cycle as a vulnerable establishment candidate in a party that has gravitated toward the populist MAGA wing. His criticism of President Donald Trump after the 2020 election and his misgivings about his chances of winning in 2024 alienated a portion of the base. He later worked to mend his relationship with the president.

Paxton’s entry into the race raised eyebrows. The MAGA-aligned attorney general endeared himself to the base by being a leading voice against the Biden administration.

However, several scandals and legal troubles plagued his campaign, which prompted many on the right to suggest that if he secured the nomination, Democrats would have a much better chance of winning the Senate seat.

Hunt’s entry into the race further shook things up. He argued that Cornyn and Paxton were too risky and that the party needed a fresh face who could unite Republicans while winning over swing voters. He split the anti-Paxton crowd, prompting Republican leaders to worry that internal divisions could also hand Democrats a victory.

Cornyn and his allies portrayed Paxton as a risky choice, with years of investigations, indictments, and a messy extramarital affair. Paxton countered by pointing out that he is an outsider who has won three elections.

“If the Democrats win, because we nominate a flawed candidate with incredible baggage like the attorney general, then that last two years of [Trump’s] agenda is jeopardized, as well as everybody down ballot that we need to continue to elect as Republicans,” Cornyn said during an appearance on Fox News.

Paxton responded in his own appearance on Fox News. “It’s really easy for him to say that when he’s losing a primary, because he’s not delivered for the people of Texas, and he’s going to find out tomorrow what that means,” he said. “He’s going to end up losing.”

Another controversy arose when one of Cornyn’s staffers posted images of Hunt’s 2016 provisional ballot on X, including his home address and other sensitive information. Hunt and Paxton blasted the senator’s campaign, accusing it of doxxing the candidate.

Cornyn’s campaign responded by pointing out that the information was already accessible to the public. However, the aide deleted the post hours later and posted another with Hunt’s personal information blacked out.

The runoff election will take place on Tuesday, May 26.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

Help Townhall continue to report on the Democrats’ radicalism and inform voters as our nation faces a crossroads. Join Townhall VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.