Why a Pollster Just Said to Bookmark His Prediction About Atlas Intel’s Latest Survey

Democrats are favored by nine points on the generic ballot and Donald Trump has a 55 percent approval rating. That’s what Atlas Intel released this week, and it got liberals all giddy. That is until you dig into the figures. Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports was not impressed. First, he said that Democrats aren’t ahead by nine points. Second, he noted the sample: “With the sample sizes involved, the atlas poll is less statistically believable than the Selzer Iowa poll.”

That infamous poll, which some allege was a suppression effort by desperate Democrats, had Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump in the Hawkeye State by three points. It was facially untrue. That would mean pollsters, the media, and campaign operatives from both parties missed a massive 16-point swing. Harris was never in Iowa if that was an indicator of anything.

Some of the crosstabs made no sense, but Mitchell added to bookmark his prediction: 

The Atlas Dem+9 GCB is going to act like a magnet pulling every “high quality” pollster left. 

Then the media is going to hammer how unpopular Republicans are all summer. 

He explains more about how Atlas, which was one of the most accurate polls in 2024, might have lost its way on this survey:

Democrats are favored by nine points on the generic ballot and Donald Trump has a 55 percent approval rating. That’s what Atlas Intel released this week, and it got liberals all giddy. That is until you dig into the figures. Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports was not impressed. First, he said that Democrats aren’t ahead by nine points. Second, he noted the sample: “With the sample sizes involved, the atlas poll is less statistically believable than the Selzer Iowa poll.”

That infamous poll, which some allege was a suppression effort by desperate Democrats, had Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump in the Hawkeye State by three points. It was facially untrue. That would mean pollsters, the media, and campaign operatives from both parties missed a massive 16-point swing. Harris was never in Iowa if that was an indicator of anything.

Some of the crosstabs made no sense, but Mitchell added to bookmark his prediction: 

The Atlas Dem+9 GCB is going to act like a magnet pulling every “high quality” pollster left. 

Then the media is going to hammer how unpopular Republicans are all summer. 

He explains more about how Atlas, which was one of the most accurate polls in 2024, might have lost its way on this survey: