Is There’s Something Fishy With New Jersey’s Latest Election Results?

What happened in New Jersey? I knew 250,000 residents fled the state since Republican Jack Citarelli’s almost-upset win against incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy in the last gubernatorial election. Momentum was swinging his way; he was clinching some wild endorsements from local Democrats and labor unions, only to get blown out 56/43 against Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherill. This race seemed tighter; it’s the only one where the GOP supposedly had a shot. So, what gives? 

Quantus Insights tweeted: 

Our first September Labor Day poll showed Sherrill +10.

By late September, after debates, campaign controversies, and the Kirk assassination, everything changed. The race tightened fast. 

More Republicans entered the likely electorate and independents started breaking for Ciattarelli. 

We confirmed this again in late October: Sherrill +3 from a random sample of 100,000 NJ voters showing Republicans fired up and turning out. However, the Democrats were holding the edge and keeping a breakout from occurring. We rather easily detected potential for a +5 to +6 Sherrill victory despite our polling showing +3.  

Notably, Sherrill was only marginally improving with Hispanic voters, showing similar margins to 2024. While our last poll did show black voters finally swinging her way. We had Ciatt at single digit support among black voters.  

Then election night happened and the results stunned nearly everyone. 

Exit polls, turnout, demographic margins, and the final numbers made little sense compared to virtually every public survey. 

It wasn’t just us. 99% of pollsters missed it at similar scale.  

Something unusual happened in New Jersey, and we’re still unpacking why. 

Also, did 500,000-plus Democrats magically appear, whereas they were dormant like cicadas in the 2013, 2017, and 2021 elections?  

It certainly raises some eyebrows. That’s all I’m going to say about that right now. 

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What happened in New Jersey? I knew 250,000 residents fled the state since Republican Jack Citarelli’s almost-upset win against incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy in the last gubernatorial election. Momentum was swinging his way; he was clinching some wild endorsements from local Democrats and labor unions, only to get blown out 56/43 against Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherill. This race seemed tighter; it’s the only one where the GOP supposedly had a shot. So, what gives? 

Quantus Insights tweeted: 

Our first September Labor Day poll showed Sherrill +10.

By late September, after debates, campaign controversies, and the Kirk assassination, everything changed. The race tightened fast. 

More Republicans entered the likely electorate and independents started breaking for Ciattarelli. 

We confirmed this again in late October: Sherrill +3 from a random sample of 100,000 NJ voters showing Republicans fired up and turning out. However, the Democrats were holding the edge and keeping a breakout from occurring. We rather easily detected potential for a +5 to +6 Sherrill victory despite our polling showing +3.  

Notably, Sherrill was only marginally improving with Hispanic voters, showing similar margins to 2024. While our last poll did show black voters finally swinging her way. We had Ciatt at single digit support among black voters.  

Then election night happened and the results stunned nearly everyone. 

Exit polls, turnout, demographic margins, and the final numbers made little sense compared to virtually every public survey. 

It wasn’t just us. 99% of pollsters missed it at similar scale.  

Something unusual happened in New Jersey, and we’re still unpacking why. 

Also, did 500,000-plus Democrats magically appear, whereas they were dormant like cicadas in the 2013, 2017, and 2021 elections?  

It certainly raises some eyebrows. That’s all I’m going to say about that right now. 

Editor’s Note: Donald Trump is America’s Peace Time President. Support and follow Townhall’s latest reporting on the president’s historic trip to the Middle East.

 Join Townhall VIP and use promo code POTUS47 to get 74% off your membership.